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Do polls reflect opinions or do opinions reflect polls? The impact of political polling on voters' expectations, preferences, and behavior

Article Abstract:

Can political polls alter the choices voters make on election day? Prior research on cognitive consistency suggests they can. This article develops a set of hypotheses based on cognitive dissonance theory concerning the effects of exposure to the results of political polls on voters' expectations about the outcome of the election, attitudes toward the candidates, voting intentions, and choice. These hypotheses were tested during experiments conducted during the 1992 U.S. presidential election and the 1993 New York City mayoral election. The results demonstrate that political polls do alter voting behavior. Voters use political polls as a way to maintain or move to a state of cognitive consistency. Depending on which candidate voters expect to win as well as the candidate for whom they intend to vote, polls can have no effect, lead voters to change their expectations about who will win, or lead voters to actually change their preferences and their voting behavior. The results have important implications for public policy and for survey methodology. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Research, Analysis, Public opinion polls, Election forecasting

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A model of primary voter behavior

Article Abstract:

A model of voter behavior in a primary election is developed and tested which integrates many schools of thought attempting to explain voter behavior and which is tested by predicting the behavior of respondents based on the model and by validating the results with actual respondent behavior. A prediction rate of 90 percent correctly classified is provided by the model, after which the explanatory and predictive power of the model is compared to models using demographic and political involvement data.

Social aspects, Decision-making, Decision making, Safety and security measures, Politicians, Voting, Sociological research

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A Simple Mathematical Theory of Innovative Behavior: Comment

Article Abstract:

Multistate modeling of social influence methodology, like that of product evaluation transfer through individuals, can be valuable as diagnostic information and increase the predictive ability of research on innovative diffusion. This is especially true for situations involving nondurable product innovations having only brief use commitments initially. Midgeley's solution algorithm included eighteen parameters in a model of direct search procedure.

Models, Innovations, Examinations, Educational tests, Behaviorism (Psychology), Behaviorism

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