Defining and improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: contributions from a VAR model

Article Abstract:

The performance of several well-known macroeconomic forecasters are reviewed in this empirical study of unconditional forecasting performance. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is introduced as a benchmark for predictive accuracy, since there is little agreement over what constitutes a successful forecasting record. The VAR model's unconditional forecasting accuracy is compared to the records of well-known producers of macroeconomic forecasts (including Chase Econometrics, Data Resources, and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates). It is concluded that errors associated with structural econometric models can be reduced in a simple, inexpensive way by building a small VAR model and combining its forecasts with those from a commercial forecasting service.

Testing, Comparative analysis, Vector analysis

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Macroeconomic forecasting: Science or voodoo?

Article Abstract:

Macroeconomics is crucial to the understanding of the forces which are at work in the world. Also, macroeconomics is crucial to both U.S. and to private sector economic goals. Various macroeconomic theories are examined with the limitations of forecasting noted. There are various public issues from which policymakers and the media seek answers rather than forecasts. Japan presently spends $25 billion each year on technological research and development.

Analysis

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The 1985 political climate for international business: a forecast of risk in 82 countries

Article Abstract:

International economic relations will improve in 1985, according to various forecasts. Due to present excess capacity in petroleum production and the declining importance of petroleum in many industrial economies, the projected modest growth of the OECD nations will not result in a sizable hike in the nominal cost of crude oil during 1985. Real economic growth for OECD will be roughly three percent in 1985.

Planning, Foreign investments, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, International economic integration, Economic integration

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