Forecasting in the 1990's

Article Abstract:

Effective and important forecasts materialize if the required demands of the forecast user are delivered and conform with the expectations of managers. Forecasts are also influenced by the shifting landscape of the business environment and shareholder and constituent group expectations as well as business technology application. Lack of resources and time, downsizing and greater management demands were the factors named during the 1996 Business Forecasting: Best Practices Conference in Chicago that pose as hurdles to forecasters in achieving efficient forecasts.

Analysis, Risk management

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Top-down or bottom-up: which is the best approach to forecasting?

Article Abstract:

Forecasting in the bottom-up (BU) approach results in more accurate forecasts that are statistically-generated, compared to the top-down (TD) approach, as revealed by several forecasting case problems. Studies also bared that the TD approach would almost result in the introduction of bias, aggregation--caused information loss, and measurement error. BU was also seen to be more potent when item series were highly correlated, or when one item excelled over other items in the aggregate series.

Methods, Decision-making, Decision making, Management, Forecasting

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State demographic forecasting for business and policy applications

Article Abstract:

The preparation of a multi-dimensional matrix model for demographic forecasting by the California Legislative Analyst's Office is described. This model has many uses for social policy and business planning.

Planning, Business, Forecasts and trends, Social policy, Demographic aspects, California, Population

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