Is a group of economists better than one? Than none?

Article Abstract:

A 1993 Wall Street Journal article discussed three common complaints about economists. According to the article, economists have a tendency to make similar forecasts, give wrong predictions and believe that today's events will recur in the future. A study was conducted to test the veracity of this claim. It compares the performance of an average individual economist's forecast to the out-of-sample performance of the best economist. Other techniques combining groups of predictions, such as a developed binary approach, a log-odds model and a simple average, are also used. The combined predictions perform better than the average individual's forecasts and accurately forecast current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead economic activity. However, forecasts made by the best economist outperform the combined forecasts as the length of the horizon increases. The Wall Street observations are seen as 'not necessarily problems.'

Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities, Economists, Economic forecasting

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Better Plane Mileage?

Article Abstract:

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working on a research project involving the improvement of fuel consumption of airliners. This engine research project will improve engine efficiency by ten per cent. The success of this research project is examined.

Aerospace industry

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