The econometric analysis of economic policy

Article Abstract:

A study sought to show that econometric analysis is germane to the formulation of economic policies as guided by macro-economic systems. The study utilized the theory of reduction, with particular emphasis on reductions where key information losses would result in the invalidation of certain policies, in pursuing this aim. Consequently, it revealed that the role of econometric models cannot be underestimated when considering such notions as forecasting, exogeneity, causality, seasonality, and data integrability. The study also proved that, as far as specific policy issues are concerned, the use of econometrics can clarify pertinent problems.

Econometrics & Model Building, Usage, Econometrics, Business models

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Multi-step estimation for forecasting

Article Abstract:

The accuracy of forecasts can be estimated using model mis-specifications that support multi-step, or dynamic, estimation (DE), also called adaptive forecasting. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to discern features that sustain DE during multi-period forecasting. A model mis-specification is found to be necessary but not sufficient to justify the use of DE. An implicit model class can be changed by multi-step estimation criteria, also resulting in changing parameter estimators.

Forecasting, Research, Estimation theory, Business forecasting, Prediction theory

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The econometric analysis of economic policy

Article Abstract:

The use of econometric analysis in economic policy design, with the aid of macroeconomic models, is examined. A framework is based on reductions, wherein the loss of data could invalidate policy decisions derived from models. Also discussed are the evaluation of models, forecasting, invariance and constancy of parameters under government changes, and conditioning policy variables.

Analysis, Macroeconomics

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