The uncertain unit root in real GNP

Article Abstract:

Traditional models of GNP have used stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend that is linear, but a new model has emerged since the early 1980s. This model, called the 'difference-stationary' (DS) model, uses a unit root in the autoregressive illustration of real GNP. Research indicates that economists should agree on focusing on the uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic shocks' level of persistence and the uncertainty surrounding the use of a unit root in real GNP.

Models

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Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?

Article Abstract:

The economic growth of the 1960s suggested that the stability of the US economy was greater after World War II than before the war. This hypothesis was tested from the point of view of duration rather than volatility. A distribution-free statistical method indicated that a postwar shift in whole-cycle-duration distributions did not occur. The postwar reduction in volatility was small, but the shift toward duration stabilization was large.

Business cycles, Economic stabilization

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The uncertain unit root in real GNP: comment

Article Abstract:

The unit-root tests analysis of Rudebusch (1993) is extended to three annual domestic real GNP data. The robustness of results is analyzed with attention to variations in the sample period and the GNP measure used. Results based on Rudebusch's procedure show weakness in unit-root tests from several interesting situations and suggest trend-stationarity. US aggregate output data is found to be not as uninformative as perceived.

Standard deviations, Standard deviation

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