Science and technology issues/opportunities for the new U.S. administration

Article Abstract:

Some issues and opportunitiesin science and technology that the new Clinton administration can harness to effect the necessary technology changes are outlined. Short-term actions prescribed include joint training sessions to be undertaken by private groups for the House and Senate members and staff, the designation of the Presidentialscience advisor, the creation of an Advisory Committee for the President and the science advisor, the establishment of a National Foundation for Technology and an immediate reorganization of key federal science agaencies.

Planning, Clinton, Bill, Science and technology policy, Science and state, Science policy, Technology and state, Technology policy

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How to recognize a sound technology forecast

Article Abstract:

Corporate competitiveness and a general feeling of uncertainty has accompanied many forecasts about the future. A direct forecast that does not have alternative futures or probabilistic outcomes should not be taken too seriously. Forecasts must also have clear assumptions as foundations. Particular forecasts on quantitative data must be evaluated in terms of the database and model that serve as their bases.

Analysis, Evaluation, Prediction theory

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Why forecasts fail

Article Abstract:

The 2 most common forecasting snares are overestimation and underestimation of the speed of a new development. Seven other pitfalls are: unconsidered beliefs; constrained and misplaced skill; lack of imagination; unconstrained research; optimism; mechanical trend inference and overspecification. All these errors should be explored before forecasting results are finalised.

Methods

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