The demise of California reconsidered: interstate migration over the economic cycle

Article Abstract:

A logistic migration model is developed to study increased out-migrations from California. Simulations are conducted to determine the impact of economic conditions and other location-specific effects. Results show a gradual slowdown of out-migration following improvements in unemployment rates, wages and house price differentials while location-specific fixed effects had minimal impact on net migration. Thus, the out-migration from California is temporary and will reverse following the economic recovery in the state.

Emigration and immigration, Migration, Internal, Internal migration

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Does California drive the west? an econometric investigation of regional spillovers

Article Abstract:

The state of California has had positive economic effects or spill-overs on nearby states. This conclusion was determined through the use of vector autoregression econometric analysis (VAR). Through this economic study, it has been determined that the large California economy has had an effect on the whole wetern region in general. This is important for monetary and fiscal policy analysts who examine the economic dynamics involved in regional planning.

Economic aspects, Economic indicators, Regional economics

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Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry

Article Abstract:

The utilization of models with business cycle asymmetry proved to be advantageous in the creation of industrial production predictions. Such models do not oblige forecasters to create a precise ex ante determination of turning points in the output series being predicted. Usage of such models also results in a forecast fit that is more reliable than those obtained through the use of more traditional single-regime forecasting equations.

Forecasting, Forecasts and trends, Business cycles, Industrial productivity, Business forecasting

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