International business cycles and financial integration

Article Abstract:

The relationship between international business cycles and trends in international stock prices were examined through a methodology developed by Bowden and Martin (BM). The BM method uses Fournier inverse to determine time functions which delineate elements of the business cycle. The method was divided into a frequency domain and a time domain. The countries studied were the US, UK, Australia, Canada, Germany and Japan. It concluded that while national business cycles were coherent, they were also dissimilar in many aspects. Evidence for coherence between stockmarket behavior and business cycles were weak although international stockmarkets exhibited greater mutual coherence.

Business cycles, International finance

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Macro-economic shocks, the ERM, and tri-polarity

Article Abstract:

The economic impact of membership in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System was evaluated by studying the output and inflation performance of ERM and non-ERM members. The data analyzed were from the IMF's International Financial Statistics on seven OECD countries and the UK, US and Japan. It was concluded that while the ERM did not have an impact on economic shocks which affected ERM members, the ERM was used by members as a vehicle for policy coordination.

Foreign exchange market

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Identification, long-run relations, and fundamental innovations in a simple cointegrated system

Article Abstract:

The roles played by innovations identified from a simple four-variable vector autoregressive framework characterized by cointegration were investigated. Distinct real and nominal innovations that dictate the long-run behavior of the model were identified using knowledge of cointegration rank. Results revealed that the permanent real shock has all the characteristics of a supply innovation, while one of the transitory innovations has the characteristics of a demand shock.

Economics, Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities, Usage, Technological innovations, Autoregression (Statistics)

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