Three scenarios

Article Abstract:

The fate of China's political system during the first decade of the 21st century is difficult to foresee because of the country's iconoclastic tendencies vis-a-vis world trends. Nevertheless, there are three developments that appear to be the most plausible. These are: the institution of free elections with the Communist Party winning many seats because of its influence, an elitist democratization in the manner of South Korea and Taiwan, or a stagnant and problematic society where authoritarianism still reigns supreme.

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A "gray" transformation

Article Abstract:

China will eventually adopt democracy as its sociopolitical system but its particular model would be one characterized by a compromise between the interests of the people and those of the elites. It would not emerge as a result of some form of revolution where the old order gets overthrown by the new. This particular kind of democracy would require a leadership that subscribes to the highest moral standards and one that could guarantee the maintenance of order.

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