"I knew it all along" under all conditions? Or possibly "I could not have expected it to happen" under some conditions?

Article Abstract:

A 1994 paper questions the adequacy of hindsight bias and its reversal in explaining highly unexpected outcomes. In particular, the paper asserts that retrospective judgments are often not in accordance with the hindsight bias and the reversal hypothesis. However, further study reveals that the hindsight bias and its reversal is applicable in many instances of unexpected outcomes.

Decision-making, Decision making

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Does a surprising outcome reinforce or reverse the hindsight bias?

Article Abstract:

It is hypothesized that a highly surprising outcome will result in the reversal or elimination of hindsight bias. Study results indicate that, in accordance with that hypothesis, a high degree of surprise will result in a reversal of the hindsight bias, while low or moderate levels of surprise will result in judgements that do not conflict with the hindsight bias.

Behavior Theory, Psychological aspects, Human behavior, Judgment, Judgment (Psychology), Surprise

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Ease of recall vs recalled evidence in judgment: experts vs laymen

Article Abstract:

Issues concerning the impact on experts and laymen of recalled evidence and ease of recall in judgment are discussed.

United States, Influence, Evidence, Expert, Expert evidence, Recall of judicial decisions

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