Labour's poll lead leaves the outcome in doubt

Article Abstract:

Pollsters are worried that their predictions for the UK general election could be very wide of the mark when the actual results are known and this could affect their position in the future. The final poll by NOP (National Opinion Polls) on the eve of the UK election on April 9, 1992 indicates Labour will form the new government with not quite an overall majority. If Labour does very well or the Conservatives remain in power NOP will be very embarrassed by accusations of failure. There are four main factors that could mean substantial differences between prediction and result. These are sampling error, late swing, differential turnout and differential swing.

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Why our poll predictions failed to reflect the vote

Article Abstract:

Opinion polls held before elections have never before been so inaccurate as those leading up to the UK general election on April 9, 1992 and the pollsters and opposition parties will need to find the reasons why. The election actually resulted in a Conservative lead of 8% but in the final polls before voting, NOP predicted a 3% Labour lead, Harris a 2% Labour lead, MORI a 1% Labour lead and ICM showed things all level. Gallup was the only one showing a Conservative lead and at 1% was 7% adrift. A series of biases is seen as the reason, all acting in the same direction to pull the forecasters away from the truth.

Statistics

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Tories need a late surge to retain power

Article Abstract:

Just three days before the UK general election on April 9, 1992 opinion polls show the Conservative party will lose its majority. Four of the last six polls show a minority Labour government, one a level result and one a clear 20-seat majority for Labour. Taken together the outlook for the Conservatives appears to be bad. In recent years no party in power has increased its support in the last week of a campaign and in five of the last six elections the Government did worse than indicated in the polls carried out during the previous weekend.

History

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