Are the Treasury's tax revenue forecasts rational?

Article Abstract:

Tax revenue forecasts of the US Dept of Treasury were analyzed to determine how rational these forecasts were in terms of the optimizing utilization of all available information. The forecasts for Income Tax, Customs and Excise and Corporation Tax were based on the Financial Statement and Budget Report for FY 1955-56 and 1988-89. The study indicated that the Treasury's forecasts performed best in the Income Tax category, but failed to show strong evidence of rationality. Very few of the variables appeared significant individually but evidence of outliers were prominent between 1979-80.

Tax planning, Economic policy, Tax revenue estimating, United States. Department of the Treasury

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Stationary ARMA solutions to linear rational expectations models with stationary ARMA exogenous processes

Article Abstract:

Solution of a single equation linear model for rational expectations requires determination of the same amount of coefficients as there are terms of expectations. The model includes a stationary ARMA independent process. Unique determination of the stationary ARMA solution is hardly possible if the amount of stable roots exceeds the amount of lagged endogenous variables. Stationary solutions cannot exist if the reverse is the case.

Economic forecasting, Rational expectations (Economics)

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Quasi-rational search under incomplete information: some evidence from experiments

Article Abstract:

A boundedly-rational model of consumer search has been constructed to demonstrate the satisfaction of consumer desire given limited information and no ideal defined strategy. The model is compared with 'bounce' rules wherein the subjects would continue searching so long as they receive successively lower quotes, but would stop after receiving one or two quotes which are higher then the previously lowest quote.

Consumption (Economics), Consumer behavior, Consumer confidence

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