Certainties old and new

Article Abstract:

Looking for certainties in a dynamic environment can result in a disastrous attachment to past assumptions. It is altogether more fruitful to determine the direction of future change. Some of the most apparent changes that are already emerging include a decline in R and D spending and the application of the principles of the Industrial Revolution to routine mental work. Other trends include a greater integration in the global economy and the slowing birth rate in both the US and Europe.

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Assumption drag in economic development

Article Abstract:

A number of prevailing preconceptions regarding international economic development needs to be debunked in order to effect a better forecasting methodology. One of these assumptions include the continuing belief in the centrality of manufacturing despite evidence to the contrary from the high-income nations of the world. Other sources of assumption drag include the belief in the unimportance of constraints in energy usage and the growing irrelevance of location.

Economic aspects, Study and teaching, Economic forecasting

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