Predicting the endpoints of earthquake ruptures

Article Abstract:

The mapped surface rupture traces of 22 historical strike-slip earthquakes with rupture lengths ranging between 10 and 420 km were examined to show that about two-third of the endpoints of strike-slip earthquake ruptures are associated with fault steps or the termini of active fault traces. The findings indicate that the magnitude of stress changes and the volume affected by those stress changes at the driving edge of laterally propagating ruptures are largely similar and invariable during the rupture process.

Nevada, Measurement, Faults (Geology)

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Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes

Article Abstract:

The earthquake size distribution follows, in most instances, a power law, with the slope of this power law, the 'b value', commonly used to describe the relative occurrence of large and small events. It is shown that the b value varies systematically for different styles of faulting and given that thrust faults end to be under higher stress than normal faults, it is inferred that the b value acts as a stress meter that depends inversely on differential stress.

Stress concentration

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Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

Article Abstract:

A generic forecast model is built which not only recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking but also only combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes. This seismic hazard modelling approach provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

California, Earthquake resistant design, Earthquake prediction

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