Simulation designs for the estimation of quadratic response surface gradients in the presence of model misspecification

Article Abstract:

The use of simulation metamodels to optimize responses is examined. This is done through a consideration of the issues that arise in the development of simulation designs for the estimation of second-order metamodels using the ordinary least squares method. Two assumptions shape the creation of such experimental designs. One is the premise that the proposed metamodel may be misspecified as a result of the third-order nature of the true model structure. The other is the premise that functions of the coefficients of the fitted model may be of more importance that the response function in most applications of these metamodels. In all, four types of response surface designs and three kinds of pseudorandom number assignment strategies are examined. The performance of these designs is also evaluated and compared to that of similar simulation plans that are developed for response function estimation.

Research, Experimental design, Research design, Response surfaces (Statistics)

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A generalized qualitative-response model and the analysis of management fraud

Article Abstract:

The work of Bell et al. (1993) on management fraud prediction is extended by using a generalized qualitative-response model (EGB2) and incorporating asymmetric costs of type I and type II errors. EGB2 offers considerable power and flexibility. Its flexible specification includes a number of useful models, such as the well-known probit and logit models, as special cases. The model's ability to accommodate asymmetric costs of type I and type II errors has important implications for accounting firms given the heavy financial toll of their failure to detect management fraud arising from litigation. The results of the study show EGB2's predictive capability with regard to both symmetric and asymmetric costs assumptions.

Accounting, auditing, & bookkeeping, Accounting & Auditing Services, Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services, Models, Forecasts and trends, Crimes against, Auditing, Fraud, Accounting firms, Accounting services, Fraud investigation

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After the Crash: The Passenger Response to the DC-10 Disaster

Article Abstract:

After the American Airlines DC-10 crashed on takeoff at Chicago in May 1979 the DC-10 received much negative publicity and the DC-10 fleet was decertified by the FAA. it was predicted that the DC-10 would never regain the confidence of the public. After a few months the DC-10 was carrying normal loads again. One reason is that North American travelers did not believe that the DC-10 was less safe. Another is the fear of being considered a coward and a third is the notion that the DC-10 received so much attention it was likely to be safer.

Management science, Consumer behavior, Catastrophic Failure, Safety, Aircraft, Airline Industry

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