Decision-Aiding Models: Validation, Assessment, and Related Issues of Policy Analysis

Article Abstract:

Operations research (OR) is a scientific approach to decision- making - the development of decision-aiding models. There is strong interest in policy-analysis model validation and assessment. However, analysts and users question whether the OR process can handle the requirements of policy analysis. By policy analysis is meant public policy and business policy issues. The basic modeling steps must be augmented by public debate, evaluation by policy advisers, and independent model assessments. It is impossible to demonstrate that a policy model is completely verified, free of error. Therefore, level of confidence is used. The inability to show that OR can aid the policy process is attributed to lack of professionalism by the developer, lack of support by sponsor, lack of faith by users, and demanding too much from the models. Decisions will be made with or without a supporting model but the computer model must prove its credibility. Block diagrams show the role of mathematical models in OR, the basic steps in the modeling process, the modeling process and its interaction with the real world, and approaches to energy model assessment.

Decision support systems, Decision Support Software, Models, Simulation, Policy, Systems, Decision Models, Decision Making

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Decreasing Failure Rates and Related Issues in the Social Sciences

Article Abstract:

Studies in social disciplines show that the longer an individual is in a given state, the harder it is for the individual to leave that state. Examples are the tenure in an organization and at a residence, abstention from crime after leaving a prison, and duration of strikes. Second order properties of negative aging help select an appropriate parametric distribution to model duration data.

Network analyzers, LAN Monitor, Resistance to Change, Failure, Social Science

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Some Reliability Models for Safety Assessment

Article Abstract:

Probablistic models of safety assessment of nuclear reactors are presented. The basic methodology of the study is the 'per demand failure rate approach.' Several competing reasonable models are shown. A theory of safety assessment is needed. The annual probability of a reactor accident is calculated.

Nuclear power plants, Safety, Probability

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