Inaccurate forecasts of the logistic growth model for Nobel Prizes

Article Abstract:

Modis forecasts using logistic growth (LG) function as a model for determining the number of U.S. Nobel Prize recipients may be inaccurate. To test the validity of the LG model, latest data has been used to compare the forecasts to the actual number of U.S. Nobel Prize recipients during the period 1988-2002.

Reports, Mathematical logic, Nobel laureates, Functional analysis, Symbolic and mathematical logic

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A study of quasi-experimental control group methods for estimating policy impacts

Article Abstract:

This study examines the results of the Quasi-Experimental Control Group (QECG) methods through a combination of analytical and experimental studies. The Monte Carlo analysis is used to demonstrate that QECG estimators substantially improve the estimates of policy impact.

Operations Research, Models, Evaluation, Management research, Experimental control

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Predicting U.S. jet fighter aircraft introductions from 1944 to 1982: a dogfight between regression and TFDEA

Article Abstract:

Technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis is compared with previous applications using a multiple-regression model to predict U.S jet figher aircraft introductions.

Aircraft, Aircraft Manufacturing, Fighter Aircraft, Usage, Fighter planes, Technology assessment, Regression analysis

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