Measuring the pace of technological progress: implications for technological forecasting

Article Abstract:

The measurement of the pace of technological progress is important for both technology management and technology forecasting. Thus, the Technology Cycle Time (TCT) indicator was developed as an objective measuring tool for the pace of technological progress. The TCT indicator was applied to two comparison analyses that assessed the pace of progress of superconductor and semiconductor technologies and evaluated the position of various countries patenting in the semiconductor field. The results showed that TCT was a valid tool in assessing each situation.

Semiconductors and related devices, Semiconductor Devices, Semiconductor and Related Device Manufacturing, Superconductive Devices, Semiconductor industry, Innovations, Evaluation, Technological forecasting, Measurement, Electronics industry, Technological innovations, Superconducting devices

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Product growth models for medium-term forecasting of short life cycle products

Article Abstract:

Three product growth models are presented for medium-term sales forecasting of short life cycle personal computing products. Information on the products is used to validated the growth models and compare their forecasting ability with ARIMA models. The forecasting accuracy of two of the three product growth models made several periods ahead is equal to the forecasting accuracy of the ARIMA models made one period ahead.

Models, Sales forecasting

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