Combining expert judgment by hierarchical modeling: an application to physician staffing

Article Abstract:

The judgments of individual experts can be made into a group decision through Bayesian hierarchical models. This technique is shown through the determination of the number and kinds of doctors to be employed at medical centers administered by the Dept of Veteran Affairs (VA). The supra-Bayesian strategy is employed for estimating the kind of uncertainty that is related to a panel's analysis of the number of doctors needed under certain situations. Hierarchical models are appropriate for these kinds of conditions because variability in the experts' decisions is partly affected by heterogeneity in their baseline experiences at various VA medical centers. Alternative hierarchical Bayes synthesis distributions are then computed for the number of doctors required for the daily workload in internal medicine at a specific VA center.

Offices & clinics of medical doctors, Physicians & Surgeons, Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists), Administration of Veterans' Affairs, Office of Veterans Affairs, Management, Usage, Human resource management, Physicians, Medical professions, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Bayesian analysis, Expert systems, United States. Department of Veterans Affairs

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An Analysis of Air Force EOQ Data With an Application to Reorder Point Calculation

Article Abstract:

Models exist that describe units demanded for an economic order quantity (EOQ) during stock replenishment. A realistic model of observed demand patterns can be chosen from the compound Poisson family of distributions. Service level is based on per cent of demand supplied during lead time. The reorder point assumed that demand during lead time is normally distributed. The normal approximation for lead time demand is valid if a large number of customers were expected during lead time. Probability models which adequately describe customer arrival and demand patterns experienced by representative accounts were identified. Tables show demand histories, data characteristics, the fit of the Poisson distribution, and predictions and observations.

Management science, Statistics (Data), Inventory control, Queuing theory, Modeling, Data modeling software, Poisson distribution, Production, Statistics, Approximation

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A bilevel model of taxation and its application to optimal highway pricing

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze a bilevel framework wherein the leader wants to optimize revenues from a taxation scheme while the follower rationally reacts to the tax levels. The optimal taxation strategy was determined based on a reduction process. The creation of tolls on a specific subset of arcs of a multicommodity transportation network was also examined. The user behavior was represented as overly simplistic, assuming no dispersion of traffic along the network routes. Results indicated that the introduction of infinitely non-atomic customer categories had a smoothing influence on the bilevel model. Findings also suggested the possibility of implementing nonlinear programming algorithm to address toll setting problems.

Tax Law, Public Finance Activities, Bridge, Tunnel, Tpke Auth, Other Support Activities for Road Transportation, Inspection & fixed facilities, Models, Taxation, Transportation authorities, Toll roads, Tolls

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