Linguistic-numeric presentation mode effects on risky option preferences

Article Abstract:

Risk level and domain determine presentation mode preferences. Numerical presentations are more precise and are preferred in gains presentation when chances are above 50% and in loss presentation when the risks are high or when gains chances are below 5%. Linguistic presentations are ambiguous and are preferred in loss presentations when gains chances are high and in gains presentations when risks are high. Further studies should be made on how presentation mode can be used by information providers to affect choices made by decision makers.

Asset & Risk Management NEC, Social aspects, Decision-making, Decision making, Risk assessment, Risk management, Language and languages, Numerical differentiation

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Conditioned assessment of subjective probabilities: identifying the benefits of decomposition

Article Abstract:

The benefits of decomposition can be determined through conditioned assessment of subjective probabilities. Results show that conditioned assessment is more reliable and more accurate than direct assessment. Conditioned assessment is more effective than other decomposition approaches since the mathematical combination of conditional probabilities reduces random response errors as well as the the tendency to produce overly extreme probability judgments.

Evaluation, Probabilities, Probability theory, Decomposition (Mathematics)

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Anticipations of effort and accuracy in multiattribute choice

Article Abstract:

The anticipations of effort and accuracy in multiattribute decision making are studied. Subjects were asked to select the best alternative from a set of loan applications with six financial attributes. Results show that large deviations between anticipated and experienced consequences for different task features, proving that individuals have little ability to anticipate the effort and accuracy of their decisions.

Research, Multiple criteria decision making

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