On the utility of lagged ratio-correlation as a short-term county population projection method: a case study of Washington State

Article Abstract:

A comparative assessment of the utility of the lagged ratio-correlation, exponential extrapolation and the Cohort-Component Methods, using data from case studies for Washington State counties in 1970, 1980 and 1990, reveals that the lagged ratio-correlation method is highly accurate and requires minimal resources in evaluating forecasts. Proportionate Reduction In Error techniques were employed in ascertaining the relative merits of the three methods in evaluating population forecasts for all three timepoints specified.

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Mean square error confidence intervals for measuring uncertainty in intercensal net migration estimates: a case study of Arkansas, 1980-1990

Article Abstract:

The use of Mean Square Error (MSE) confidence intervals can lessen uncertainty in migration estimates resulting from poor assumptions of mortality. Viewing mortality as a constant results in both bias and a greater likelihood of random error. MSE confidence intervals are applied to 1980-1990 migration estimates for Arkansas that were compiled using the Forward Life Table Survival Method in order to show the benefits of MSE.

Methods, Innovations, Arkansas, Measurement, Statistics, Demographic aspects, Census, Censuses, Demographic surveys, Migration, Internal, Internal migration, Confidence intervals

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The Vertical and Horizontal Expansions of China's System

Article Abstract:

The author investigates the impact of institutional factors on China's city planning and development. Topics include socialism, urban policies and population growth.

United States, Statistical Data Included, Research, China, Economic aspects, Political aspects, Cities and towns, City planning, Urban planning, Socialism

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